Accommodating covariates in receiver operating characteristic analysis speed dating california

It puts markers on a common scale, thus facilitating comparisons between markers and across studies.Confounding occurs in evaluating classification accuracy when a covariate, .When evaluating a marker to be used to classify individuals, if marker observations depend on a covariate, the marker should be calibrated to account for this covariate.The covariate-specific ROC curve calibrates the marker with respect to , as we will describe.

For example, levels of prostate-specific antigen (PSA), a biomarker widely used to screen men for prostate cancer, tend to increase with age.Using the partial area under the ROC curve (PAUC) criterion as a forecast accuracy measure and paired-comparison testing via bootstrapping, we find that complex univariate methods (including Flores-Pearce 2, Forecast PRO, Automat ANN, Theta, and Smart FCS) perform best for this purpose.The Kendall tau test of dependency for PAUC and a judgmental index of forecast method complexity provide further confirming evidence.Note that the classification accuracy of the marker is the same in the two centers; it is described by the covariate-specific ROC curve, common to the two centers.In other words, lies above the common covariate-specific ROC curve because the center with the most cases also tends to have higher marker levels.

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